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Weekly US Market Insight 8/31/26

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Sep 02, 2026

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Level Four Capital Management
WEEKLY INSIGHT

Week of
September 1, 2026

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
September 1, 2026

Market Snapshot

As of August 28, 2026

Equities	Close	1 WK	YTD	1 YR
S&P 500	7,711.76	+0.50%	+13.49%	+19.98%
NASDAQ Composite	26,402.42	+0.85%	+14.04%	+22.38%
Dow Jones	53,559.99	+0.55%	+12.58%	+19.28%
Russell 2000	2,972.37	-1.46%	+20.82%	+26.69%
Fixed Income	Close	1 WK	YTD	1 YR
U.S. Aggregate	2,343.86	+0.13%	-0.21%	+1.86%
U.S. Corporate	3,534.41	+0.32%	-0.30%	+1.78%
Municipal Bond Index	1,399.27	-0.16%	+0.49%	+4.44%

Source: Bloomberg. Returns reflect the trailing week ended August 28, 2026.

US Weekly Recap

The S&P 500 added 0.50% to 7,711.76 as mega-cap AI strength offset small-cap weakness. The Nasdaq Composite led major benchmarks, up 0.85% to 26,402.42, after Nvidia's blowout fiscal Q2 print (revenue of $96.2 billion versus $91.9 billion expected, EPS of $2.22 versus $2.08 expected) reignited the AI-capex trade and lifted chip and hyperscaler names broadly. The Dow rose 0.55% to 53,559.99, while the Russell 2000 was the week's laggard, down 1.46% to 2,972.37, as small-caps bore the brunt of a mid-week Treasury selloff that pushed the 10-year yield toward 4.7%+ before Treasury Secretary Bessent moved to steady the market with an upsized debt buyback program. Walmart shares fell as much as 9% after posting its first U.S. comparable-sales miss in roughly five years despite beating on revenue and EPS, underscoring pressure on the value-conscious consumer. On the upside, Moderna extended its rally on positive Phase 3 melanoma data for its Merck-partnered cancer vaccine candidate. Fixed income was mixed: the U.S. Aggregate gained 0.13% and Corporates added 0.32%, while Municipals slipped 0.16%.

Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 3.34% year-over-year in July, above both the 3.3% estimate and June's 3.29% pace. The monthly Core PCE reading held at 0.2%, in line with estimates but double June's 0.1% clip. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP was left unchanged at a 1.5% annualized pace, but the GDP Price Index was revised up to 6.4% from 6.2% and personal consumption growth was revised higher to 3.4%, both pointing to firmer underlying price pressure than initially reported. Personal income jumped 0.4% in July, more than double the 0.2% estimate, while personal spending rose a milder 0.2%, short of the anticipated reacceleration. Taken together, the data reinforced a "sticky inflation, resilient income" narrative that complicated the case for near-term policy easing, even as Friday's MNI Chicago PMI missed sharply (47.1 versus 57.9 expected), a reminder that manufacturing momentum remains fragile.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish debut at Jackson Hole, warning the Fed still has "work to do" on inflation. Confirmed by the Senate in May, Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to note that more than half of tracked goods and services are still seeing price increases of 3% or more, and that rate hikes remain squarely on the table if underlying trends do not clearly and convincingly improve. He characterized labor-market softness as a secondary concern relative to inflation. Markets responded by roughly doubling the implied odds of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to a near coin-flip from about one-third beforehand, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose from 4.22% to 4.30% intraday. Equities largely shrugged off the remarks Friday, but the shift sets a notably more cautious backdrop heading into next week's jobs-dominated data slate.

Fed Watch

CURRENT
RATE
3.50-3.75%
Held 5th
Meeting

10-YR
TREASURY
4.73%
As of
Aug 28

WTI
CRUDE
$83.05
Wk High
$86+

HOLD
PROBABILITY
'50%
Pre-JH:
'33%

NEXT
FOMC
Sep 16
2:00 PM
ET

The Fed has held its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% for five consecutive meetings, but new Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut on Friday reshuffled the September calculus. Warsh signaled the Fed "must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed," and that rate hikes remain a live option if it isn't. Odds of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting roughly doubled to a near coin-flip from about one-third beforehand, a sharp reversal from Kalshi pricing just days earlier that had shown holds favored and cuts all but priced out.

The inflation backdrop gives Warsh's caution some cover: Core PCE accelerated to 3.34% year-over-year in July, above estimates, and the Q2 GDP Price Index was revised up to 6.4%. Warsh specifically flagged that over half of tracked goods and services are still posting price gains of 3% or more, above pre-pandemic norms, and framed that as more concerning than current labor-market softness. That reasoning puts the Fed's inflation mandate ahead of its employment mandate for now, a stance that may also put the central bank at odds with a Treasury actively working to hold long-end yields down via an upsized buyback program.

Next week's jobs-heavy calendar will be the swing factor into the September decision: ADP (Wed.), ISM Manufacturing and Services (Tue./Thu.), and the August jobs report (Fri., est. +55K vs. -23K prior, unemployment rate est. 4.1%) all land before the Fed's blackout period begins. A strong labor read would reinforce Warsh's hawkish framing; a weak one would revive cut odds and set up a genuinely contested meeting. Broadcom's earnings Wednesday, the week's most closely watched AI-capex read-through after Nvidia's strong quarter, is a secondary catalyst for risk sentiment.

Sector Rotation & Style

Mega-cap growth reasserted leadership as small-caps lagged sharply. The Nasdaq's 0.85% weekly gain, powered almost entirely by Nvidia's earnings beat and the AI-capex halo it cast over chip and hyperscaler names, contrasted with a 1.46% decline in the Russell 2000. Small-caps proved far more sensitive to the week's Treasury-yield spike and, later, to the repricing of Fed hike risk after Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, both of which weigh disproportionately on smaller, more rate-sensitive balance sheets. The growth-over-value, large-over-small pattern extended a theme that has defined much of 2026 and is directly relevant to LGRO's large-cap growth positioning, which carries meaningful AI-infrastructure exposure.

Global Markets

Overseas markets ended mixed as regional stories diverged from Wall Street's AI-driven strength. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% and Taiwan's TAIEX gained roughly 0.8%, both riding the tech-sentiment lift from Nvidia's earnings, while South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.79% on institutional tech profit-taking and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was roughly flat. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 suffered its worst session in about a month on Thursday, down 0.7%, as France's CAC 40 dropped roughly 1.7% and French banks fell 4-5% amid renewed fiscal and political uncertainty ahead of next year's presidential election; Germany's DAX held up better and European indices broadly recovered into Friday. Brent crude fell more than 5% for the week even as WTI eased to roughly $83/bbl, as the U.S. rolled out fresh sanctions targeting countries maintaining economic ties with Iran, adding a fresh geopolitical crosscurrent to energy markets.

What to Watch This Week

1. Jobs week culminates Friday with the August employment report. Nonfarm payrolls are estimated to rebound to +55K after July's -23K contraction, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.1%. ADP's Wednesday print (est. +47K vs. +44K prior) and Tuesday's JOLTS openings (est. 7.31M) offer earlier reads. Given Chair Warsh's newly hawkish framing, the risk is asymmetric: a strong report would reinforce a possible September hike, while a weak one could just as quickly revive rate-cut odds and reopen a genuinely contested FOMC meeting.

2. ISM Manufacturing and Services bracket the week. Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing (est. 55.2, prior 55.6) and Thursday's ISM Services (est. 54.1, flat with prior) will be read alongside last week's sharp MNI Chicago PMI miss (47.1 versus 57.9 expected) for signs that regional manufacturing softness is broadening. A second consecutive miss would complicate the "resilient economy" case Warsh leaned on at Jackson Hole.

3. Broadcom headlines a loaded earnings slate. AVGO reports Wednesday after the close as the week's marquee print, given its exposure to custom AI silicon and hyperscaler capex following Nvidia's strong quarter. Dell, Palo Alto Networks, MongoDB, and Lululemon round out a week that spans AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, cloud software, and consumer retail, giving advisors a broad cross-section of corporate spending and consumer-health signals.

Important Disclosure

The information provided, including any tools, services, strategies, methodologies and opinions, is expressed as of the date hereof and is subject to change. Level Four Capital Management (“LFCM”) assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. The information presented in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by the trader or sales personnel or product specialist to be reliable, but LFCM does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes or from the use of information presented in this document. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view. Any headings are for convenience of reference only and shall not be deemed to modify or influence the interpretation of the information contained.

This material has been prepared by personnel of LFCM and is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject LFCM to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. It is provided for informational purposes, is intended for your use only, and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned, and must not be forwarded or shared with retail customers or the public. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is intended only to provide observations and views of certain LFCM personnel. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the personnel at any time without notice.

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LEVEL FOUR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT · WEEKLY INSIGHT

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