Weekly US Market Insight

Posted on

Aug 21, 2026

share-this
Share This

Level Four Capital Management
WEEKLY INSIGHT


Week of
August 17, 2026

US Weekly Recap

The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,785.76 and touching fresh record territory intraday as easing inflation offset a soft retail sales print. The Russell 2000 led all major benchmarks with a 1.15% weekly advance versus 0.39% for the S&P 500 and a 0.53% decline for the Dow, extending the small-cap and value rotation that has defined 2026 as investors close the earnings-growth gap between smaller companies and mega-cap technology. Energy shares joined technology in pushing indices higher, with refining margins widening sharply as Middle East disruptions, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity, and Chinese fuel export curbs tightened global supply. Semiconductor names also staged a notable recovery from July's AI-related pullback, helping the Nasdaq Composite eke out a 0.16% gain despite a choppy tape into Friday's close.

Inflation data delivered the week's most encouraging news for markets and the Fed alike. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% in June and in line with estimates, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. Producer prices were essentially flat month-over-month (0.0% vs. 0.2% expected) and annual PPI growth cooled to 4.7% from 5.5% prior, reinforcing the disinflation trend even as elevated energy costs continue to work through the pipeline. The combination reduced near-term fears that the Fed would need to reconsider its holding pattern, with CME FedWatch odds of a September hold ticking up to roughly 69% by week's end.

Beneath the record headline prices, signs of consumer softening emerged. July retail sales fell 0.6% against expectations for a 0.1% gain — the softest print in months — while the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment reading dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, as inflation concerns weighed on household outlooks. That softness stands in contrast to a resilient corporate earnings season: with roughly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported, second-quarter EPS growth is tracking near 50% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2021, powered largely by continued AI infrastructure investment. The tension between a still-strong corporate tape and a cooling consumer sets up next week's heavy slate of big-box retail earnings as a key test.

Fed Watch

CURRENT
FED RATE

3.50–3.75%
TARGET
RANGE

10-YR
TREASURY

4.63%
AS OF
AUG 13

WTI
CRUDE

$82.40
PER
BARREL

HOLD
PROBABILITY

69%
SEPT
FOMC

NEXT
FOMC

SEP 16
DECISION
DAY

 

The Fed, under Chair Kevin Warsh, held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 meeting, citing solid economic activity and job gains that continue to keep pace with the workforce. The committee offered few forward-looking signals, and roughly half of policymakers have indicated openness to a rate hike later this year should inflation prove less durable than hoped. The next FOMC meeting, September 15–16, will include a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot — the first updated forecast since June and a key input for the rate path into year-end.

July's inflation data gave the Fed room to stay patient. Headline CPI cooled to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5%, core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, and producer prices came in flat month-over-month against expectations for a 0.2% rise. Still, inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and energy-driven cost pressures — a function of ongoing Middle East supply disruptions — represent the clearest upside risk to the disinflation narrative the Committee will be watching closely.

Between now and the September decision, the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium (August 27–29) is the next major venue for policy signaling, alongside housing, industrial production, and flash PMI data due this week. CME FedWatch currently prices roughly 69% odds of a September hold, leaving meaningful room for repricing if incoming data surprises in either direction.

What to Watch This Week

1. Big-Box Retail Earnings Test Consumer Resilience. Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and TJX all report this week, arriving right after a 0.6% retail sales miss and a sharp drop in University of Michigan sentiment. These prints are the clearest read yet on whether the consumer is genuinely softening or simply normalizing after a strong stretch. A broad miss across multiple names would meaningfully raise recession-adjacent concerns and could accelerate rotation into defensives; a broad beat would reinforce the resilient-consumer narrative underpinning current equity valuations.

2. Fed Path Comes Into Focus Ahead of the September SEP. Jobless claims, the Philly Fed survey, flash PMIs, and the Jackson Hole symposium (August 27–29) will all shape expectations heading into the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where a new Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot are due. With CME FedWatch pricing roughly 69% odds of a hold, any hotter-than-expected data or hawkish Jackson Hole commentary could quickly reprice that probability lower.

3. Housing and Manufacturing Data Test Rate-Sensitive Sectors. Housing starts, building permits, and industrial production (Aug 18), alongside flash S&P Global PMIs (Aug 21), will show whether elevated mortgage rates and energy costs are weighing on rate-sensitive corners of the economy even as headline equity indices sit near records. Continued softness here would widen the gap between Main Street and Wall Street that this week's data has already begun to reveal.

Important Disclosure

The information provided, including any tools, services, strategies, methodologies and opinions, is expressed as of the date hereof and is subject to change. Level Four Capital Management (“LFCM”) assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. The information presented in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by the trader or sales personnel or product specialist to be reliable, but LFCM does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes or from the use of information presented in this document. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view. Any headings are for convenience of reference only and shall not be deemed to modify or influence the interpretation of the information contained.

This material has been prepared by personnel of LFCM and is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject LFCM to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. It is provided for informational purposes, is intended for your use only, and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned, and must not be forwarded or shared with retail customers or the public. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is intended only to provide observations and views of certain LFCM personnel. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the personnel at any time without notice.

Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment strategy or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances. This document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. This document is not to be reproduced, in whole or part, without the written consent of LFCM.

Other Articles You May Like

Downsizing or Selling Your Home in Retirement: Tax Implications to Kno

Downsizing or Selling Your Home in Retirement: Tax Implications to KnowSelling the family home is one of the biggest financial decisions many people make in retirement whether you're downsizing something smaller, moving closer to family, or relocating somewhere warmer. Before you list the house, it's worth understanding how the sale could affect your taxes.The Good News: Most Home Sellers Owe Little or No TaxUnder federal tax law, homeowners can exclude a significant amount of profit from capital gains tax when they sell a primary residence: Up to $250,000 in gain excluded for single filers Up to $500,000 in gain excluded for married couples filing jointly These limits have stayed the same since 1997 they aren't adjusted for inflation but for most sellers, especially those who haven't owned an especially high-value home for decades, they're enough to eliminate the tax bill entirely.Do You Qualify for the Full Exclusion?To claim the exclusion, you generally need to pass two tests: Ownership test: You owned the home for at least 2 years during the 5-year period before the sale. Use test: You lived in the home as your primary residence for at least 2 years during that same 5-year period. For married couples claiming the full $500,000 exclusion, both spouses need to meet the use test, though only one spouse needs to meet the ownership test. If only one spouse meets the use test, the exclusion drops to $250,000.If you don't fully meet the two-year requirements but had to sell due to a job change, health issue, divorce, or similar unforeseen circumstance, you may still qualify for a partial exclusion.How Your Gain Is Actually CalculatedThis is where record-keeping pays off. Your taxable gain isn't your sale price it's your sale price minus your cost basis, which includes: What you originally paid for the home The cost of qualifying capital improvements over the years (a new roof, an addition, major renovations not routine repairs or maintenance) Selling costs, such as agent commissions Every dollar documented improvement raises your basis and lowers your taxable gain. If you've owned your home for decades, digging up old receipts and records for major projects can make a meaningful difference sometimes the difference between owing tax and owing nothing at all.What Happens If Your Gain Exceeds the ExclusionIf your profit is larger than your exclusion amount, the excess is taxed as a long-term capital gain (assuming you owned the home more than a year), generally at 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on your overall taxable income. For higher-income sellers, an additional 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax may also apply above certain income thresholds. This is more common than it used to be for retirees who've owned a home for many years in an area where property values have risen substantially.A Few Other Situations Worth Knowing Home office deductions: If you claimed depreciation on a home office in past years, that portion is generally "recaptured" and taxed differently when you sell, separate from the main exclusion. Selling a second home or rental property: The primary residence exclusion generally doesn't apply to vacation homes or rental properties. Different rules, including possible depreciation recapture, come into play. Inherited homes: If you're selling a home you inherited, the property typically receives a stepped-up basis to its fair market value at the time of the original owner's death which can significantly reduce or eliminate taxable gain compared to using the original purchase price. Using the exclusion more than once: The exclusion isn't a one-time benefit. You can generally use it again for a future home sale, as long as you meet the ownership and use tests again and haven't claimed it on another sale within the prior two years. Why Planning Ahead MattersThe tax side of selling a home is often simpler than people expect, especially with the exclusion in play but assumptions can be costly in either direction. Some retirees overestimate their tax exposure and hesitate to sell when they'd actually owe little or nothing. Others underestimate it, especially with a long-held, appreciated home, and are surprised by a gain above the exclusion. Reviewing your specific numbers before you list the home, rather than after the sale closes, gives you room to plan.Thinking about downsizing or selling a home in retirement? Contact Zunic Advisory Services to walk through what the sale could mean for your taxes.

Required Minimum Distributions Explained: What Seniors Need to Know

Required Minimum Distributions Explained: What Seniors Need to Know Each YearIf you have a traditional IRA, 401(k), or similar tax-deferred retirement account, the IRS eventually requires you to start withdrawing money from it whether you need the cash or not. These withdrawals are called Required Minimum Distributions, or RMDs, and getting them wrong can be costly. Here's what to know.What Is an RMD?An RMD is the minimum amount you're required to withdraw each year from certain retirement accounts once you reach a specific age. The rule exists because these accounts let your money grow tax-deferred for decades the IRS eventually wants its share, so it requires withdrawals (which are taxed as ordinary income) to begin at a set point.RMDs generally apply to: Traditional IRAs SEP and SIMPLE IRAs 401(k), 403(b), and most other employer-sponsored retirement plans RMDs do not apply to Roth IRAs during the original owner's lifetime, and as of 2024, Roth 401(k) and Roth 403(b) accounts no longer require RMDs either.What Age Do RMDs Start?The starting age has changed more than once in recent years under the SECURE Act and SECURE 2.0, so its worth checking which rule applies to you based on your birth year: Born 1950 or earlier: RMD age is 73 Born 19511959: RMD age is 73 Born 1960 or later: RMD age is 75 Because the rules phased in over several years, it's easy to be working from outdated information especially if you read something a few years ago. When in doubt, confirm your specific required beginning age rather than assuming.The First-Year Deadline Is a Little DifferentYour very first RMD comes with a special option: you can delay it until April 1 of the year after you reach your RMD age, rather than taking it by December 31 of the year you turn that age.The catch: if you delay that first withdrawal, you'll need to take two RMDs in that same calendar year the delayed one and the current year's which can push you into a higher tax bracket. For many people, taking the first RMD by December 31 of the year they reach RMD age, rather than waiting, actually results in a smoother tax picture.After your first RMD, all future ones are due by December 31 each year.How Is Your RMD Calculated?Your RMD is based on your account balance as of December 31 of the prior year, divided by a life expectancy factor from an IRS table (most people use the Uniform Lifetime Table). The result is your required withdrawal for the year. If you have multiple IRAs, you calculate the RMD for each one separately but can withdraw the total from any single IRA or combination of them. 401(k) accounts generally don't allow that same flexibility each 401(k) typically requires its own withdrawal.What Happens If You Miss One?Missing an RMD, or withdrawing less than required, comes with a real penalty: a 25% excise tax on the amount you should have withdrawn but didn't. That penalty can be reduced to 10% if the mistake is corrected within two years. Given how steep the penalty is, it's worth building a reliable system or working with someone who tracks it for you rather than relying on memory alone.A Strategy Worth Knowing: Qualified Charitable DistributionsIf you're charitably inclined, a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) lets you transfer funds directly from your IRA to a qualifying charity. That amount can satisfy some or all of your RMD for the year without counting as taxable income which can help keep your adjusted gross income lower, potentially reducing how much of your Social Security is taxed and help avoid higher Medicare premium brackets. This is generally available starting at age 70, even though it's tied to satisfying RMDs that begin later.Why This Deserves Yearly AttentionRMDs aren't a "set it and forget it" task. Your required amount changes every year as your balance and life expectancy factors change, and a distribution can ripple into other parts of your tax return affecting how much of your Social Security is taxable, your Medicare premium bracket, and your overall tax bill. Reviewing your RMD strategy annually, rather than treating it as a single calculation, often uncovers opportunities to plan more efficiently.Want help calculating your RMD or building it into your broader tax strategy? Contact Zunic Advisory Services we're happy to walk through where you stand.

Tax Breaks Seniors in Pennsylvania Often Miss

Tax rules shift as you move into retirement, and not always in ways that are obvious. Between federal provisions aimed at older taxpayers and Pennsylvania-specific programs, there are a number of tax breaks seniors qualify for but don't always claim sometimes simply because they don't know they exist. Here's a rundown worth reviewing.1. The Additional Standard Deduction for Age 65+If you or your spouse are 65 or older, you're entitled to a higher standard deduction than younger taxpayers. This is automatic if you claim it correctly when filing, but it's easy to miss if you're using outdated software, an old return as a template, or filing without noting your age.2. Pennsylvania's Retirement Income ExclusionOne of the most overlooked advantages of retiring in Pennsylvania: the state generally does not tax retirement income, including distributions from 401(k)s, IRAs, pensions, and Social Security, provided you meet the retirement age and eligibility requirements for the plan. Many retirees moving from other states are surprised by how favorable this treatment is but it only helps if your return reflects it correctly.3. Property Tax/Rent Rebate ProgramPennsylvania offers a Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program for eligible older adults and residents with disabilities, providing rebates on property taxes or rent paid during the year. Eligibility is based on income and age, and the application is separate from your standard tax return meaning it's easy to file your taxes and never realize you also qualified for this rebate.4. Medical and Dental Expense DeductionsHealthcare costs often rise in retirement, and medical expenses above a certain percentage of your adjusted gross income can be deducted if you itemize. This can include: Long-term care insurance premiums (subject to age-based limits) Certain home modifications for medical needs Mileage to and from medical appointments Portions of Medicare premiums Many seniors don't itemize because they assume the standard deduction is automatically better but for those with significant medical costs, it's worth running the numbers both ways.5. Credit for the Elderly or DisabledThis federal credit is aimed at taxpayers 65 or older (or those who are retired on permanent disability) who fall under certain income thresholds. It's a narrower credit with specific income limits, which is likely why it's frequently overlooked but for those who qualify, it can meaningfully reduce a tax bill.6. Charitable Contributions from an IRA (Qualified Charitable Distributions)For those 70 or older, a Qualified Charitable Distribution allows you to transfer funds directly from an IRA to a qualifying charity. This can satisfy some or all of a Required Minimum Distribution without the amount counting as taxable income a strategy that's often more advantageous than donating cash and claiming a deduction, especially for those who no longer itemize.Why These Get MissedMany of these breaks live in different places some are automatic line items, some require a separate application, and some depend on choices like itemizing versus taking the standard deduction. It's easy for a return prepared quickly or based on last year's template to miss one or more of them, especially as personal circumstances change year to year.A Second Look Can Be Worth ItIf you're not confident your recent returns captured everything you were eligible for, it may be worth a review sometimes amended returns can recover missed savings from prior years, depending on filing deadlines.Not sure whether you're getting the full benefit of these programs? Schedule a tax consultation with Zunic Advisory Services, proudly serving south central Pennsylvania since 2004.